CONFERENCEPopulation Migration Features and Determining Factors in Regions of Latvia
Juris Krumins
University of Latvia, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics
Aleksandrs Dahs
University of Latvia, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics
Atis Berzins
University of Latvia, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics
DOI: 10.22364/fg.16.15
Keywords: human geography, migration, spatial analysis, regions, Latvia
Abstract
Since the restoration of independence in 1991, spatial demographic development in Latvia has been characterised by a widening core (central area of the country: capital city Riga and Pieriga region) and periphery (surrounding regions and counties) gap. Regional municipal statistics testify that observed demographic dichotomy differs by indicator used, but is consistent in terms of spatial distribution and demonstrates stable deviating trends. Among the most interesting and significant are the indicators associated with internal and external migration. Attention is drawn to the constructed indicator “missing declared population” (difference between declared or registered and factually estimated population number, hereafter - MDP), which to the large extent illustrates the volume of undeclared migration in the regions. By reviewing results of the relevant econometric models, authors analyse causes of the observed disparity. A high significance of the spatially correlated error term for the MDP indicator underlines the presence of an unaccounted external spatially correlated factor(s) affecting the MDP rate in the local municipalities. Evaluation of 2016 survey results about inhabitants’ perceptions concerning current regional demographic changes and challenges provide further hints on the nature and complexity of the underlying undeclared migration processes.